April showers might bring May flowers, but so far spring isn’t bringing much growth for open market fiber prices, according to widely used pricing indexes.
Containerboard and most other boxboard prices remained flat in May, but uncoated recycled board showed a $30 per ton bump, according to Fastmarkets RISI's monthly pricing data in its Pulp & Paper Week publication on May 16.
Similarly, monthly containerboard prices were unchanged in a May 16 alert from Green Markets, a Bloomberg company, ahead of releasing its full monthly box report at the end of May.
Both groups’ reports highlight monthly data for the open market, which analysts peg at 5% to 10% of the total market; the majority of fiber sales are covered by contracts. “There's an ever-shrinking pool of independents who don't have a mill,” said Ryan Fox, corrugated packaging market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence.
Containerboard demand was largely unchanged from April, although Fastmarkets RISI showed slight improvement in box demand month over month.
Georgia-Pacific announced last week that it would close its containerboard mill in Cedar Springs, Georgia, with most of the shutdown occurring by Aug. 1. That “should be supportive of pricing and could contribute to a market upturn in July or August,” said Michael Roxland, Truist Securities senior paper and packaging analyst, in a May 18 note to investors.
He also mentioned some producers’ optimism for a better second half of 2025, given the Trump administration's 90-day agreement to reduce the 145% tariffs on China. Prior to the reduction, the tariffs had hit fiber sales and demand, including for containerboard and boxes, analysts say.
“Containerboard sales are pretty soft. We highlighted in the alert that the export market is not doing so hot. ... China was a big part of that,” Fox said. “As soon as the Chinese tariffs were reciprocated, and China was doing the 125% tariff on our stuff, our exports to China disappeared.”
Some box makers reportedly are pushing for lower board prices, according to Roxland. But mills, notably recycled board mills, are resisting and hoping for a demand bump in June, he said.
For boxboard, May pricing was flat from April for solid bleached sulfate, coated recycled board and coated unbleached kraft, according to Fastmarkets RISI. Graphic Packaging International previously announced price increases for CRB and CUK, set to take effect May 15. However, “our boxboard trade contacts have suggested that this price increase is unlikely to be implemented given good board availability, although producers could target a price increase in the early Fall should demand improve,” said Roxland.
“Broadly, I think the folding carton market in the U.S. is a mirror image to what we're seeing in corrugated, where they're highly vertically integrated, with a reliance on imports for some grades and for some clients,” said Fox.
CRB demand has been soft, Roxland said. So far in 2025, producers have announced or completed the closure of approximately 377,000 tons of CRB capacity, or about 7% to 9% of North American supply, with at least another 90,000 tons likely on the way, he said. GPI's recycled board mill in Waco, Texas, is expected to come online in the fourth quarter, with about 83,000 tons of new capacity, he pointed out.
“[O]vercapacity persists and contacts noted continued exports would be necessary to balance the market and achieve any higher pricing,” Roxland said.
