Dive Brief:
- Greif on Tuesday became the second major uncoated recycled paperboard producer within the last week to announce a price increase, after Sonoco on March 6. Cascades was the first with such an increase in 2026, and its early February announcement came simultaneously with a $70 per ton containerboard price hike.
- Greif is implementing the $60-$70 per short ton increase, depending on the grade, on new URB orders and shipments as of April 6, while it will increase tube and core and protective prices by a minimum of 7.5% on April 13. Sonoco’s URB price increase is slated for April 3, and its 8% increase on all other converted paperboard products hike is scheduled for April 15.
- Greif said the URB hike is due to increased costs, such as for labor and utilities, while Sonoco’s reasons include inflationary input costs, tightening market conditions and increased mill utilization rates. Similarly, Cascades in February had cited higher input costs.
Dive Insight:
Sonoco, Greif and Cascades are the first, second and fourth largest URB producers, respectively.
Producers’ price increase announcements come just after a round of similar activity from containerboard producers. For those, Cascades joined other containerboard producers such as International Paper, Packaging Corporation of America and Smurfit Westrock. The containerboard bumps were for $70 per ton, with all slated to occur the first week of March.
Weeks after those announcements, Fastmarkets RISI shocked the industry by reporting that monthly containerboard prices fell by $20 per ton in February compared with January. While analysts noted that the index only covers the open market — generally estimated at less than 10% of the entire containerboard market — they also said the $20 per ton decrease could jeopardize producers’ abilities to get full recognition of their hikes.
In that same Feb. 20 data release, Fastmarkets RISI reported that prices for all boxboard grades remained flat from January. URB order activity improved, which could be supportive of Cascades’ March 2 price increase for that grade, reported Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, in a Feb. 22 memo to investors.
Following Fastmarkets RISI’s February data release, George Staphos, BofA Securities analyst, said in a Feb. 23 memo to investors that URB markets showed slight improvement in bookings and longer lead times. Overall boxboard demand was stable, including from plastic-to-fiber trends. “This is interesting, as the sustainability theme seemed to cool recently amid affordability concerns,” he said.
Both Staphos and Roxland noted that producer substitution among boxboard grades is occurring, which stands to benefit grades other than solid bleached sulfate. “Substitution among grades also seems to be a growing topic of discussion as the SBS premium to recycled grades has eroded,” Staphos said.
Executives at several companies, including Smurfit Westrock and Clearwater Paper, detailed boxboard grade shifts during earnings calls in late 2025. Clearwater CEO Arsen Kitch echoed others’ thoughts that the industry oversupply was mainly limited to SBS, and it was pushing operating rates into the mid- to low-80s. Mike Doss, then-CEO at Graphic Packaging International, described a “large imbalance” in the SBS market that prompted competitors to lower their SBS pricing.
The American Forest & Paper Association’s quarterly boxboard data release in October also discussed these dynamics: SBS saw a 1% year-over-year production increase, while URB saw a 3% year-over-year increase.
