Although many companies have publicly toned down their sustainability messaging, they’re still investing in sustainability initiatives — especially for packaging — according to a report that Bain & Co. released Thursday. Losing momentum on sustainability would be “a serious strategic miscalculation” for paper and packaging, especially as regulation is “now shaping economics at scale,” it says.
Despite curbing some external messaging, numerous businesses are still prioritizing sustainability behind the scenes. Sustainability also is a leading purchasing criterion for packaging customers, with 59% of the 125 respondents to a 2025 survey saying they would switch suppliers within three years if their sustainability metrics weren’t being met.
“[T]he era of setting ambitions is over and the hard work has just begun,” the report says. “Five years ago, targets were enough to earn credibility. Today, packaging customers are falling behind in their sustainability commitments.”
The 2026 paper and packaging outlook report covers themes including rethinking supply chains, the role of artificial intelligence, chemical recycling and M&A expectations. Sustainability and substrate issues represent prominent focal areas.
For years, companies have grappled with whether to switch packaging substrates for various products, mainly to replace plastics. Brands face pressure to opt for certain substrates that consumers perceive to be more sustainable, the report says. Tighter environmental regulations and evolving material innovations are also factors.
Altogether, “the past five-plus years in the packaging industry have been turbulent, and market dynamics continue to change rapidly,” the report says.
About 60% of the 8 trillion units of consumer packaging that Bain estimates exist globally are plastic while 20% are fiber. Consumers and regulators alike are pushing for shifts to more sustainable options. Cups and lids, containers, boxes and clamshells are leading categories where plastic has a high share but is expected to come under regulatory pressure, unlocking further opportunities for fiber.
US consumers prefer non-plastic substrates for packaging
Surveyed consumers in the United States and across other countries reported a preference for paper and glass packaging for products purchased at grocery stores.
Non-plastic substrate manufacturers are innovating to replicate certain qualities of plastic packaging and gain market share, the report says. For instance, fiber producers are devising better barrier properties.
Consumers rank recyclability as top packaging sustainability attribute
As discovered in other recent sustainability studies, respondents to the Bain survey considered recyclability to be the most important packaging sustainability attribute.
Recycled content also ranked high on packaging sustainability attributes. However, suppliers are struggling to meet demand for recycled plastic, with a potential 30% to 40% gap in supply and demand for certain resins by 2030, according to Bain.
