Dive Brief:
- Month-over-month North American containerboard prices rose $50 per ton in June, according to monthly data that Fastmarkets RISI released in its Pulp & Paper Week publication on Friday.
- That’s a full recognition by the pricing index of containerboard producers’ announced June price hikes, their second round of increases announced so far in 2026.
- This movement brings the net total increase that Fastmarkets RISI has recognized in 2026 to $100 per ton.
Dive Insight:
North American containerboard pricing has been a roller coaster this year. Fastmarkets RISI largely shocked observers with its February $20 per ton price decrease, followed by a course reversal in March with a $40 increase and a $30 increase in April; May was flat. But this June increase was highly anticipated, with the team behind the index even alluding to such movement in recent weeks.
Four days before Friday’s data release, Fastmarkets RISI issued an analysis by PPW Lead Editor Gregory Rudder previewing the increase. It noted that producers’ second formal price increase announcements in four months would be unique for the North American open market, because these hikes typically have been on five-month intervals — even during the COVID-driven hot period of 2020-2022. At that time, containerboard producers raised linerboard and corrugating medium prices four times in 17 months, for a total increase of $220 per ton, according to Rudder’s analysis.
He notes that conditions now are different than in the past. First, North American producers announced facility shutdowns in 2025 totaling nearly 10%, or approximately 3.9 million tons, of industry production capacity. The analysis calls this level of capacity reduction in the span of a year “unprecedented.”
In addition, inflation is at a three-year high, fueled by ripple effects from the war with Iran and other factors. And old corrugated container prices in the United States have steadily increased in 2026.
“This has all led to the double-barreled price increases,” Rudder wrote.
The June increase is notable for another reason: “[T]his is the first price increase in at least four years to have the full amount implemented in the index in the targeted month, potentially indicating stronger supply demand conditions than any point in the past few years,” said Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, in a Sunday memo to investors. He noted that mill backlogs stand at five to eight weeks, compared with 4.5 to 5.5 weeks in May.
The production capacity reductions appear to be affecting containerboard market dynamics following the final closures that occurred in Q1. Multiple producers have pointed to demand improvements so far in 2026. The latest data points came this month, with Packaging Corporation of America noting that it would reduce or defer some export sales to rebuild United States box plant inventories. Demand is robust, the containerboard market remains tight, and open market supply is “hard to find,” said CEO Mark Kowlzan at an industry conference.
Bank of America Securities analysts described slight volumes improvements across the industry and expectations for further growth in the next two quarters, in a June 18 memo to investors based on a recent BofA survey. Even so, demand is “still flattish,” according to analyst George Staphos, and expectations for 0.5% year-over-year shipment growth are below the long-term average of 1.5%.
A key theme from all these market dynamics and the pricing moves is that capacity discipline has become a more powerful pricing lever than demand, according to Matt Reddington, Procure Analytics vice president of packaging. It’s interesting that Fastmarkets RISI “called out those that cited no price changes as waiting for the ‘index to settle’ prior to accepting a price increase,” he told Packaging Dive via email Sunday.
“If the index is supposed to report the market, and the market is waiting for the index to settle, is the index really independent?” he said. “Less than 10% of the North American containerboard market is represented by RISI index, because it tracks the ‘open market.’ Most of the volume moves through long-term contracts.”
Containerboard is an input that plays into box prices, but one doesn’t necessarily dictate the other, he said, noting that box prices also depend on location, freight, supplier dynamics and capacity. If two buyers can purchase the same box during the same month and pay materially different prices, “it shows that the index is more of a compass, not a price list,” according to Reddington. “[T]he index value and the price of a box have shown a large divergence over the last 6+ years.”
Now, questions are surfacing about customers’ acceptance of these price hikes for the remainder of the year. Some of Fastmarkets RISI’s boxmaking contacts expect a certain level of customer resistance, especially if input costs decline, according to the June 19 data release. BofA Securities said their contacts suggest the potential for additional pricing movement in autumn or into early 2027.
