Metal packaging input costs remain under pressure in 2026, as the Midwest Premium passed a new milestone and tariffs on aluminum and tinplate steel imports hold firm.
The U.S. Supreme Court’s Feb. 20 decision invalidating wide-reaching tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not affect the main Section 232 tariffs on metal packaging inputs, nor did a subsequent 10% “global tariff” enacted by the Trump administration stack on top of the 50% duties under Section 232. There were rumors in mid-February that the Trump administration might alleviate aluminum and tinplate steel tariffs, though the administration denied them and has not taken any rollback action.
Can manufacturing executives touched on expected 2026 tariff impacts during recent earnings calls, noting that costs the past year have primarily been passed through to customers and consumers. Still, Crown Holdings’ CEO acknowledged aluminum prices being up significantly, and Ball’s CFO expected “some direct tariff cost in 2026.”
Meanwhile, aluminum prices in the U.S. have outpaced international markets. In late January, the Midwest Premium surpassed $1 per pound for the first time. Research from the University of Cincinnati showed that canned foods saw some of the sharpest price increases among grocery products at the end of 2025.
The Can Manufacturers Institute says that’s bad news for consumers. “We expect greater price increases in 2026 than we saw last year,” CMI President Scott Breen said at the end of January, acknowledging the “sky-high” Midwest Premium.
Section 232 metal tariffs are an ongoing source of uncertainty for canmakers, and CMI remains focused on bringing down tinplate steel and aluminum tariffs given U.S. manufacturers’ reliance on import volumes.
U.S. companies have to import nearly 80% of tinplate steel, Breen noted.
“We're talking with the Trump administration, explaining this reality for our industry, because we're domestic manufacturers too, and we support thousands of jobs across this country as well. So we don't want our industry to be threatened,” he said. “We need to make sure that we have the tinplate steel we need at a competitive price to make the cans.”
Canmakers say that even with the price increases, canned goods remain an affordable and attractive offering for consumers. But as tariffs persist, CMI says there’s uncertainty about whether consumers will continue buying at the same levels in 2026.
While the Trump administration has remained firm on Section 232 tariffs, “We think we have a very compelling story. We think that we can partner with the administration to get more domestic production as well as targeted tariff relief, so that downstream domestic manufacturers have the materials they need and costs stay reasonable,” Breen said.
The U.S. Trade Representative released its 2026 trade policy agenda this week, “doubling down” on President Donald Trump’s America First approach. Objectives include reviewing the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which exempts many products traded by North American partners from new tariffs.
The new conflict in Iran and the broader Middle East introduces yet another variable impacting aluminum prices.
“In 2025, the Middle East accounted for roughly 21% of unwrought aluminum imports and 13% of wrought aluminum imports,” the Aluminum Association stated Tuesday. “Given the region’s role in global aluminum trade, we are concerned about potential supply chain implications and remain in close contact with our member companies.”
