Impacts from shifting trade policy could continue to impact packaging manufacturers in indirect and potentially unpredictable ways in the second half of 2025, also affecting the M&A environment.
Through the first half of 2025, Packaging Dive tracked more than 60 transaction announcements involving packaging companies with U.S. operations — not far off from the volume in the same period in 2024. According to PwC, overall M&A activity in the U.S. saw little growth in the first six months of the year, with policy and economic uncertainty likely hampering volumes. PwC tracked some 4,535 transactions from January through May, which it said was similar to a year prior.
In packaging, many of 2025’s biggest deals were announced in 2024.
2025 M&A highlights so far
- International Paper finalized its purchase of DS Smith in January, a deal valued at more than $7 billion.
- Toppan closed its $1.8 billion acquisition of Sonoco’s thermoformed and flexibles packaging business, Sonoco announced in April.
- Novolex completed its $6.7 billion takeover of previously publicly listed Pactiv Evergreen in April.
- Amcor completed its all-stock acquisition of Berry Global in April.
Just a week or so into the second half of the year, there have already been some notable deals. Packaging Corporation of America announced plans to purchase Greif’s containerboard business for $1.8 billion. Still, analysts are tempering expectations for the coming months.
“Expectations for packaging M&A activity during the second half of 2025 are similar to the performance we witnessed in the first half — a suppressed M&A market driven by tariff uncertainty, destocking trends and lower overall volumes in packaging, a stubborn interest rate environment, and the majority of acquisition activity coming from add-ons for private equity-owned assets,” said David Bench, a managing director at Capstone Partners, in an email.
Bench highlighted that growing companies with less exposure to international supply chains, particularly in specialty applications like cold-chain or protective, could be especially attractive.
The longer view could be a different story.
“Overall M&A activity will continue to be lackluster until there is certainty around tariffs and a lowering of the interest rates,” Bench said. “Our latest view is the momentum in packaging M&A, and the broader market, should pick up in Q4 of this year in anticipation of a stronger 2026.”
Bench acknowledged more direct impacts to packaging’s international supply chains. Additionally, markets that generate demand for packaging, such as e-commerce, are also poised to be affected by higher tariffs, he said.
“These factors are impacting margins, customer demand, supply chain disruption and overall performance of packaging companies, and in turn negatively impacting M&A activity for the sector,” he said.
Additionally, Mike Tsai, a director at S&P Global Ratings specializing in packaging and containers, also said that while “you still see some deals happening,” tariff uncertainty is having some impact on volumes. Consumer health and interest rates will be other top factors to watch in the second half of the year.
