For the second consecutive quarter, the rate of decline in North American containerboard production slowed in Q3, according to quarterly data the American Forest & Paper Association released Friday. Meanwhile, box shipments reportedly fell in Q3, according to quarterly data the Fibre Box Association released Friday.
Containerboard data
AF&PA showed that third-quarter containerboard production fell 1.6% year over year, per a Nov. 1 memo from Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities. But production increased 2.7% from the second quarter, according to the association.
The year-over-year decline follows the North American industry’s closures that totaled a production capacity loss of nearly 10% in 2025. In Q2 2026, the association showed containerboard production declined more than 2% year over year, which was a sequential improvement from the 8% year-over-year decline in Q1.
Also for the second consecutive quarter, the containerboard industry’s overall operating rate was above 94.5% in Q3. Year-to-date operating rates are therefore 2.5 points higher than in 2025, according to AF&PA.
Q3 exports reportedly declined nearly 23% year over year and 11% from Q2. That’s an acceleration from the 19% year-over-year drop in exports that AF&PA charted in Q2, when the association noted a link between the production decline and reduced exports. Q3 imports increased 25% from Q2.
On the boxboard side, AF&PA showed a nearly 1% year-over-year increase in production during Q3. The industry operating rate fell 1.5 points year over year to 88.3%.
Box trends
FBA showed that quarterly box shipments dropped 1.6% year over year, Roxland noted in the Nov. 1 memo. That’s consistent with what Packaging Corporation of America and International Paper reported during Q3 earnings reports in October: 0.5% and 2% year-over-year declines in box volumes, respectively.
Other analysts echoed that sentiment. “The third quarter didn’t go as well as we hoped,” said Ryan Fox, corrugated packaging market analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, during a session at the Paper and Plastics Recycling Conference in Chicago on Thursday.
He also noted that last quarter FBA revised how it reports data. “To me, it solved a lot of problems that I saw in the data. It helped us understand that volume — the billions of square feet of boxes — was vastly more than we had known, while the tonnage really didn't change,” Fox said.
