Dive Brief:
- North American containerboard prices rose in September compared with August, according to newly released data in Fastmarkets RISI’s Pulp & Paper Week publication. Linerboard prices reportedly rose $70 per ton month over month and medium prices rose $100 per ton.
- This is the first month the index recognized producers’ third wave of containerboard price increases in 2026, which ranged from $80 to $140 per ton. The index last moved in June when it recognized a $50 per ton increase.
- Prior to the latest bump, Fastmarkets RISI so far this year had recognized a net increase of $100 per ton for containerboard related to the first two rounds of hikes.
Dive Insight:
This PPW data release has been hotly anticipated because of the controversial third wave of containerboard price increases that North American producers had announced to take effect in September. The industry has been abuzz since those July announcements, and many observers had expressed shock and dissatisfaction.
In a Sept. 11 memo to investors, George Staphos, BofA Securities analyst, noted the ongoing controversy: “Buyers have debated whether producers moved too aggressively in announcing their various third increases for September.”
Green Markets, a Bloomberg company, released a memo Friday revealing that its survey of containerboard buyers “found no evidence” that producers’ third round of announced increases have hit the open market. “Instead, some buyers are only now reporting prices paid in September that reflect the $50-per-ton increase recognized by the benchmark in June.”
“Most independent buyers reported adequate paper supply, with little indication of broader availability constraints or market tightness,” the memo said. However, many who source from major U.S. mills continue to report “lean inventories, late deliveries and a need to manage paper supplies hand to mouth,” according to Green Markets.
In an uncommon move, AICC, The Independent Packaging Association, was among those speaking out against the third wave. It called the increases unjustified and suggested they harm independent converters.
It’s rather unusual for producers to announce three containerboard increases in one calendar year, AICC pointed out, but it has happened before. The association pointed to 2010 and 1994 as examples.
Packaging Corporation of America especially has taken heat for initiating the third wave with its $140 per ton increase, which has been called an unprecedented amount. Smurfit Westrock and International Paper followed with hikes of $100 per ton and $80 per ton respectively, and Cascades then announced a $110 per ton increase for linerboard and white-top and a $140 per ton bump for medium.
Following PCA’s July announcement of the $140 increase, PPW Lead Editor Gregory Rudder said in a post, “If fully implemented, that means linerboard prices in North America would rise by $240 per ton in only seven months, in what is likely the largest, fastest increase ever.” He said the last time the market even came close to that was during the COVID-19 pandemic runup when prices rose four times from 2020 to 2022 for a total of $220 per ton.
The index also raised some eyebrows earlier this year. It did not recognize the full $70 per ton the major containerboard producers announced for their first hike of 2026, and it surprised many observers with a $20 per ton drop in February. That was followed by a $40 per ton increase in March — which some observers suggested might be a mea culpa for the February dip — and $30 per ton increase in April.
PCA executives reported during the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference on Sept. 10 that they had begun implementing the third increase and it would likely start to show up in financials in Q4. CEO Mark Kowlzan also stood his ground regarding the price hike implementation and said the company is prepared to lose some business because of it.
After that conference, Fastmarkets RISI issued a memo noting constructive industry fundamentals. Both PCA and IP executives said supply is tight and pointed to cost inflation, including for OCC, as justification for the increases. But they also reported that while demand is steady, it’s been lower than anticipated.
Analysts have expected that Fastmarkets RISI would likely only partially recognize an increase in September. BofA Securities also predicted that the third containerboard increases could “prompt significant contract rebidding.”
BofA predicted a “near-term rally in containerboard” and anticipated an $80 per ton containerboard price bump in September, and possibly an additional $50 per ton in Q3 2027.
“We do not expect the market to achieve the higher end of that range given ongoing demand and other factors,” Staphos said in the Sept. 11 memo. Even so, “the current supply tightness, coupled with positive labor-market trends (positive for future demand), should support pricing.”
In general, observers had expected to see some level of reset for the containerboard industry in 2026 following North American producers announcing in 2025 a spate of facility closures that amounted to a historic 10% industrywide production capacity cut. While producers including IP, PCA and SW have discussed containerboard market improvements and tightness as the year has progressed, softer-than-expected demand remains a sticking point.
Staphos said in his Sept. 11 memo that when examining risks for the coming months, “we're mostly worried about demand.” He also noted that producers need to navigate the new 50% tariffs from the United States-Canada trade war; both sides called out pulp and paper under affected products, which observers have surmised includes containerboard.
Meanwhile, Fastmarkets RISI also delivered a surprise Thursday evening by releasing boxboard prices a day earlier than usual. Michael Roxland, senior paper and packaging analyst at Truist Securities, noted in a Thursday memo to investors that the move could have been an accident, or it could have suggested that the index would be "going big” on containerboard and wanted that to stand out.
The uncoated recycled paperboard price rose $60 per ton in September after remaining flat in July and August. Although this comes at a delay from producers’ announced July increases, it marks full recognition of that second round of URB hikes this year.
Coated recycled paperboard prices stayed flat in September, despite producers’ announced $50 per ton increases set to take effect this month. Similarly, solid bleached sulfate prices were flat following producers’ announced $60 per ton increases.
