Dive Brief:
- AICC, The Independent Packaging Association, is speaking out against major containerboard producers’ third wave of price hike announcements in 2026, on behalf of its independent corrugated, folding carton and rigid box converter members.
- The three rounds of increases came within just five months and aren’t justified “based on current raw material inputs and economic data,” AICC said in a statement Monday. The group also questioned containerboard producers’ statements during recent earnings calls that indicate demand is improving and supply is tight.
- The third round of increases, announced in recent weeks, is “reflective of a small group of producers having market dominance,” AICC said, adding that producers historically announce large hikes and hope for partial market recognition. “In essence, they are testing the resolve of the market.”
Dive Insight:
For the last week and a half, the paper and packaging industry has been abuzz about this third wave of North American containerboard price increases. Many reactions have reflected shock, disdain and skepticism, with questions circling about the true nature of the industry’s supply and demand today and the veracity of major companies’ price hike rationales.
Packaging Corporation of America kicked off the third wave on July 24, the day after its second-quarter earnings call, with a $140 per ton increase set to take effect Sept. 1. That’s roughly double the typical containerboard price hike, and industry participants and observers overall have called this figure unprecedented.
Days later, other major producers — including Cascades, International Paper and Smurfit Westrock — followed suit with their own increase announcements. Those figures were slightly less stark, with a range of approximately $80 to $110 per ton, although Cascades announced a $140 per ton hike on medium.
While the first two increases in 2026 were reportedly in response to cost increases for OCC and other inputs as well as expectations for demand improvements, the third is “uncalled for,” AICC President Michael D’Angelo told Packaging Dive via email.
“Some regions in the country are seeing higher demand than others. That simple fact makes the third increase uncalled for and the size of the increase ridiculous – especially when announced by a supplier [like PCA] that is 95% integrated,” he said.
The association pointed out that producers have repeatedly raised prices over the last five years, even during down markets. “Announced increases are imposed on, and disproportionately impact, independent box makers,” AICC said in a statement.
PCA, SW and IP make up nearly two-thirds of supply for the containerboard market, AICC said. These producers and others announced closures in 2025 that resulted in a historic, nearly 10% production capacity cut in North America. “However, half of the removed capacity was mills producing exclusively for export. Additionally, some mill outages are temporary due to natural causes,” AICC said.
The association also noted that while producers including PCA and IP cited “tight” markets during their recent earnings calls, IP CEO Andy Silvernail explained that Q2 demand was softer than expected and the company adjusted its demand outlook for the year. IP no longer anticipates a notable demand increase in the second half of 2026, instead projecting relatively flat demand in North America and a modest uptick in Europe. The American Forest & Paper Association released Q2 data showing a healthier containerboard industry, but still a 2% year-over-year decline in production.
Fastmarkets RISI’s pricing index did not recognize the full $70 per ton the major containerboard producers announced for their first hike of 2026; it showed a net increase of $50 per ton, based on a surprise $20 per ton drop in February, $40 per ton increase in March and $30 per ton increase in April.
The second announced increases, effective as of June, are still working their way through the system, AICC explained. That also came up during numerous companies’ recent earnings calls, with executives expecting all or nearly all effects by year’s end.
AICC pointed out that Fastmarkets RISI’s pricing index has not aligned with the industry’s other major index, the Bloomberg Corrugated Box Cost Index, which formally launched in 2025. In the July Box Report by Green Markets, a Bloomberg company, analysts described the third wave of increases as coming at the same time that the second increases are being implemented.
As such, PCA’s latest increase “caught much of the industry off guard,” the July 30 Green Markets memo said, adding that PCA hasn’t fully described its rationale for the third hike. “The reaction among industry executives was immediate and unusually visceral. Several paused before responding, while others greeted the news with expletives. ‘I’m in shock. I really don’t know what to say,’ one said.”
Those analysts said early sentiment suggests the second increase might be implemented more selectively than the first. Additionally, it might not receive full recognition as customers weigh alternatives.
“Whether the increases hold may depend less on what the benchmark publication says than on producers’ willingness to defend pricing in a highly competitive market,” the Green Markets memo says. “If the latest hike is recognized, the implications for box pricing would be significant.”
The third increase would cause the price of paper to be up 45% compared with Q1 2024, according to AICC.
Three announced containerboard increases in one calendar year is not unprecedented, but it is unusual, according to AICC, citing 1994 and 2010 as previous years with such a phenomenon. But economic conditions were different and more turbulent then, AICC said, adding that the level of increases announced in those previous years were not at the magnitude of the collective hike amounts announced in 2026.
At times in the past, the association has opposed containerboard increases on behalf of its members, D’Angelo explained. But it has not released anything like Monday’s statement since the run-up in demand during the COVID-19 pandemic and the post-COVID demand drop to 2016 levels, he said.
While AICC spoke out against the increases, it stopped short of requesting that producers take some sort of action in response.
The association highlights that all the third round increase announcements came within days of each other, meaning producers’ rationales come “unconvincingly in such a relatively short period of time in between them.” This is akin to an argument made in a containerboard price-fixing lawsuit brought against major producers last year, in which the plaintiff alleges producers’ follow-the-leader pricing in short time periods is evidence of collusion. AICC is following that ongoing case but does not have any comments about it, D’Angelo said.
AICC says its members constitute a majority of privately held independent converters in North America. “While we recognize the need for all our suppliers to operate profitably, it should not be at the expense and long-term health and viability of another distinct market player, the independent sector.”
